Gender differences in attitudes towards Brexit

Since the referendum of June 2016, there has been a huge amount of discussion of the demographic breakdown of the vote and current attitudes towards Brexit. This has not been limited to conversations amongst academics but features significantly in the broadcast and print media. It has been important for internal party debates, particularly within the Labour Party, about which direction the leadership should take, and has also featured heavily in the moral discussion of the referendum, be it talk of the vote of the 'left behinds', the more troubling tendency to paint the leave vote as somehow more authentically of the people, or, on the remain side, the significance of the youth vote.

What's striking is one notable absence: gender. This seems like an odd omission, given the well established trend of populist and nativist movements to be male dominated.  I had the impression that there was a significant difference between men and women in attitudes to Brexit, but could not find much in terms of charts, graphs or metadata to confirm or deny this. I remembered that Yougov has a poll tracker of attitudes towards Brexit, which it normally breaks down its responses by gender. The question posed is "In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the EU? Respondents can answer either 'right', 'wrong', or 'don't know'. I trawled through the last year's worth of data and produced a weighted mean for each result by gender. As the overall picture of attitudes has been relatively stable over this period (though the lead for 'wrong' has increased slightly), this made sense as a time period for measuring differences in current attitudes by gender, rather than changes in attitude over time. All data is given as percentages, weighted by sample size. They are as follows:




Right Wrong Don't Know
Men 43.746.7 9.7
Women 37.5 48.314.0
Clearly, women tend to have less positive attitudes towards Brexit. The most significant differences are the lower levels of women who say that Brexit was the 'right' choice, and the higher number who say they do not know. When 'don't know' is removed (though perhaps it shouldn't be) the difference in levels of support for right vs wrong becomes more pronounced. They are as follows:



Right Wrong
Men 48.4 51.6
Women 43.7 56.3




For those interested, the raw data used is produced below. I've tried to find every single Yougov poll done in the last year, but there are a couple of omissions, either because I've been unable to find the polling data or because it is not broken down by gender.

Date Men right Men wrong Men DK Women right Women wrong Women DK Sample Size
23 July 2018 / YouGov 47 43 11 38 49 13 1650
9 August 2018 / YouGov 45 45 10 38 46 16 1036
13 August 2018 / NC 45 44 10 41 46 12 1660
21 August 2018 / YouGov 45 45 10 37 50 13 1697
29 August 2018 / YouGov 45 47 8 39 47 14 1664
4 September 2018 / YouGov 43 48 9 41 47 12 1883
13 September 2018 / YouGov 44 48 8 37 48 15 1620
19 September 2018 / YouGov 45 46 9 36 49 15 2509
1 October 2018 / YouGov 44 47 9 40 46 13 1607
9 October 2018 / YouGov 44 45 12 36 49 15 1647
15 October 2018 / YouGov 43 44 13 41 46 13 1649
23 October 2018 / YouGov 46 45 9 37 48 15 1802
5 November 2018 / YouGov 46 43 11 36 48 16 1637
27 November 2018 / YouGov 44 48 8 39 48 13 1737
4 December 2018 / YouGov 40 50 10 35 48 16 1624
14 December 2018 / YouGov 45 46 9 37 48 14 5043
4 January 2019 / YouGov 43 47 10 37 49 14 25537
7 January 2019 / YouGov 43 46 11 36 51 13 1656
14 January 2019 / YouGov 42 49 9 39 47 14 1701
4 February 2019 / YouGov 43 47 10 36 49 16 1851
23 February 2019 / YouGov 42 47 11 37 48 14 1672
15 March 2019 / YouGov 43 50 7 39 48 14 1823
25 March 2019 / YouGov 43 48 9 38 48 14 2110
3 April 2019 / YouGov 43 47 10 41 46 13 1771
11 April 2019 / YouGov 44 48 8 38 48 13 1843
3 July 2019 / YouGov 45 47 8 37 48 14 1605
17 July 2019 / YouGov 46 45 10 35 50 15 1749
Weighted Mean 43.71562555 46.65833593 9.671929848 37.50304271 48.33015735 14.01256387 73783
* Number Cruncher Politics

No comments:

Post a Comment