This is not, primarily, a comment on the likely candidates as individuals. Yes, Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, Dominic Raab, Esther McVey and Sajid Javid are a pretty dire selection of personalities. But more importantly, whoever does win the Conservative leadership contest will have done so having made the most grotesque set of promises to the party membership they can come up with. It’s true that candidates will also need to be one of the top two shortlisted by Tory MPs, but ERG support should all but guarantee the second place. Coordination to prevent this would be very difficult, and go down very badly with a membership that even less extreme MPs are worried about angering.
The reason for this is simple. The Conservative Party membership have been radicalised. On Brexit, the membership favours the 'no deal' option by a large margin. Polling of this sort is difficult to do accurately, but figures in January suggest 57% support no deal as their preferred choice of outcome, and in April about 75% said supported it in an unranked poll (support vs do not support). Candidates will have to compete for the support of these members, subject to the same structural pressures which tend to progressive radicalisation that has occurred since 2016. They will still justify policy purely in terms of abstract satisfaction of 'popular will' rather than desirability. They will still be constrained by the realities of Brexit, which will not allow them to fulfill any of the promises of what it can bring without immense destruction. And they will still be tempted to try delegitimise any institutions which get in their way.
Crucially, the individuals themselves have fairly limited agency in this process. With weakened party structures, their rise and fall depends on bending to these pressures. And there will always be plenty of people willing to do so. Figures like Jacob Rees Mogg and Mark Francois were nobodies a few years ago, but became somebodies very quickly once they started making the right noises on the issue of the day. Conversely, the moment Rees Mogg suggested he might in fact back the Withdrawal Agreement, he quickly had to change his tune in the face of backlash from his supporters. Leadsom and Johnson almost certainly only supported Brexit in the first place with a moment like this is mind, and McVey has fully embraced no deal lunacy for similar reasons. The only alternative candidates have that is politically viable given party membership is to try and once again promise impossible concessions from the European Union. And they will have to make clear that when these inevitably fail, they will opt for no deal.
Whoever emerges as leader from this process will have done so promising grotesque lunacy. The only upside to this is they might very well quickly lose a vote of no confidence, if enough Conservative MPs can be brought on board. The next few months could be very troubling indeed.
Crucially, the individuals themselves have fairly limited agency in this process. With weakened party structures, their rise and fall depends on bending to these pressures. And there will always be plenty of people willing to do so. Figures like Jacob Rees Mogg and Mark Francois were nobodies a few years ago, but became somebodies very quickly once they started making the right noises on the issue of the day. Conversely, the moment Rees Mogg suggested he might in fact back the Withdrawal Agreement, he quickly had to change his tune in the face of backlash from his supporters. Leadsom and Johnson almost certainly only supported Brexit in the first place with a moment like this is mind, and McVey has fully embraced no deal lunacy for similar reasons. The only alternative candidates have that is politically viable given party membership is to try and once again promise impossible concessions from the European Union. And they will have to make clear that when these inevitably fail, they will opt for no deal.
Whoever emerges as leader from this process will have done so promising grotesque lunacy. The only upside to this is they might very well quickly lose a vote of no confidence, if enough Conservative MPs can be brought on board. The next few months could be very troubling indeed.
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